2020 hindsight

I wrote this in Feb 2020. It seems quaint now.

“In other fun news, the coronavirus outbreak just keeps getting worse. 200+ deaths per day now, and tens of thousands reported as infected, primarily in China. Both these figures are likely under-reported, and if infection rates keep progressing as they have the last month…it’s very bad news. My personal fear is that the virus will enter the US in a big way soon and effectively shut down air travel. Trouble with that (aside from the obvious big picture issues) is that I want need to get to KY in May to see my new grandson and family. And yes, I know that’s pathetically self-centered and parochial. But there it is.”

And this, written in May.

“The final US death toll from COVID-19 is very hard to predict, but one thing that isn’t hard to predict is the new minimum number.  We’re at about 70,000 today, and I sure don’t think we’re at a peak. IF we were at peak, we’d see about the same number of deaths coming down the curve as we saw going up. So given that and given that many states are now relaxing restrictions, I’d put the minimum 2020 death toll at 150K-250K. The minimum.”

This is one instance where I would be happy being proven wrong.

Those musings now seem quaint because the US just passed 16M infected and 300,000 people dead of COVID. The reality is much wore than we imagined. Over 200,000 new infections and 2500 deaths reported every day lately. I wrote a lot about COVID during March, April and May, and turns out I had a pretty good handle on what was coming. Even so, I feel COVID fatigue every day. There’s a temptation to say “fuck it” and just get on with life without all the constraints. But that would be a huge mistake.

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