New insights on C19 and the future

I don’t need to restate the ever-growing C19 statistics – they’re bad worldwide and especially bad in the US. But here are a couple of good information resources for those wanting to think about what’s really coming during 2020.

A podcast with Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern.

And, a new state by state projection of C19 peak infections and deaths from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington.

Some insights I got from the podcast and the website:

  • Many of the basic drugs and reagents needed for fundamental hospital and ER operations come from the Lombardy region of Italy and from China. The two worst-hit places in the world. Go figure. This has the potential to make ALL (not just C19 cases) hospital treatments worldwide difficult in upcoming months.
  • Obesity appears to be a big correlative risk factor for those infected with C19. So…time to get serious about losing some weight.
  • PPE for health care workers, particularly N95 masks, are a huge problem. We just can’t produce enough to get past our probable infection peaks in 2020.
  • The danger of C19 isn’t going to end on May 1. Or June 1. This risk will be with us in the US for at least the rest of the year. And we can’t stay cooped up that long. So…what do we do?

Net, today is one of those days in which my worldview and outlook get adjusted. Like everyone else, I want things to get back to normal soon and thought that mid-May we had a good chance of that. Now…not so much.

Thanks to my brave, on-the-front-lines ER doc cousin Donnie and my great friend Gary Austin for these info resources. It’s good to have rational, smart people in your circle of friends.

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